Avigdor Lieberman Is Israel’s New “Kingmaker”

ISRAEL - Last November, Avigdor Lieberman resigned as Israel’s defense minister when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to reject Lieberman’s plan for a military operation in Gaza and agree to a ceasefire with Hamas instead. At the time, Lieberman called the ceasefire a “surrender to terrorism”, and of course it didn’t last very long at all. Hamas has continued to bombard Israel with rockets in the months since then, and this has once again brought Israel and Hamas to the brink of war. But everything was on hold until Tuesday’s election, and it appears that the outcome of that election is going to make war with Hamas much, much more likely.

According to the exit polls, the Blue and White party led by Benny Gantz and Netanyahu’s Likud will win about the same number of parliamentary seats. But neither of them will be able to come close to forming a majority without Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party, and that makes Lieberman Israel’s new “kingmaker”. In this election, it looks like Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party will roughly double the number of seats they hold in parliament, and I guarantee you that Lieberman will not join any coalition unless he is assured that Israel will invade Gaza.

In the days leading up to the election, I think that Netanyahu realized that he was losing votes to Lieberman, and that may be why he said that it looks like Israel has “no other choice” other than to invade Gaza. In the end, that didn’t stop many Israelis from voting for Lieberman instead, and now Lieberman has more political power than ever.

So what should we expect next? After the formation of a government, we should expect Israel to launch a military operation inside Gaza at some point after the upcoming Jewish holidays. Of course this would have the potential of sparking a much wider regional conflict, but the Israeli people are simply not going to put up with the endless rocket attacks coming from Gaza any longer. For Hamas, the Israeli election could not have gone any worse.

Our comment

It is highly unlikely that an invasion of Gaza would be confined to Gaza. Hezbollah, operating out of Lebanon, has committed to attack Israel if Israel invades Gaza. As Hezbollah are supported by Iran, this could ensure a steady supply of advanced weapons from Iran. Israel could suffer serious losses.

If the situation threatens the existence of Israel, Israel could well respond by using nuclear weapons. The US could well join in – taking the opportunity to attack Iran. Also note that Iran is backed by Russia… perhaps we can see just how serious this could become!

Watch the Middle East carefully – this is where it all happens!!

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