USA - The oil taps are open again. On June 24, President Trump announced that China is now free to purchase crude from Iran. The statement came mid-flight aboard Air Force One, en route to a NATO summit in The Hague. The message was posted to Truth Social. “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen.” That was the quote. No ambiguity. No walk-back. The sanctions that blocked this trade were reinstated in 2018 and expanded through 2024. They targeted Iranian crude exports and penalized Chinese importers. That wall is now down. Beijing buys over 90% of Iran’s oil exports. The timing is not random. The announcement followed a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered by the United States after weeks of missile exchanges and airstrikes.

IRAN - There are many people out there that seem to think that the Iranians have essentially surrendered by agreeing to this ceasefire, but that is not the case at all. The Iranians still hate the United States, they still hate Israel, and they still plan to move forward with their nuclear program. Ultimately, their long-term goals have not changed at all. But a ceasefire is certainly strategically advantageous for the Iranians at this moment, and so they eagerly embraced President Trump’s proposal. Unfortunately, those that believe that this ceasefire is the end of the story are way off base. In the western world, we tend to view a ceasefire as a complete cessation of hostilities that leads to permanent peace. But in Islam, a ceasefire is viewed very differently. Islamic law allows for a temporary “tactical pause” in hostilities known as a “Hudna”, and it is considered to be a time to rearm and regroup in order to continue the fight later.

NETHERLANDS - €1million-a-minute meeting is most expensive ever held. Reports of potential sabotage on the Dutch rail network add to tensions before President Trump and other leaders meet, protected by a huge military operation. It will be the shortest ever Nato summit in terms of face-to-face talks, as well as the most expensive, as the Western alliance strains every sinew to avoid confrontation with President Trump. Hosted by the Netherlands in the Hague, the country’s political capital, the summit centres on a single session of Nato leaders scheduled to last for two and a half hours. The cost of gathering is €183 million, or more than €1 million a minute — a bill of just over €10 for every single Dutch citizen. Opening the summit, Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general and former Dutch prime minister, stressed that the extra defence spending — difficult for many European allies — would cement American commitment to guaranteeing European security.

USA - US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that a ceasefire was now in effect, soon after Iranian state-linked media announced Tehran had fired its “last round” of missiles at Israel. “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social around 1:00 am stateside. Iran had launched a fresh barrage of missiles at Israel as the ceasefire deadline announced by Trump neared. A spate of questions linger over the viability of a ceasefire, Iran and Israel’s participation, the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the West and Tehran, and the ultimate fate of Iran’s supplies of enriched uranium.

MIDDLE EAST - The Iran-Israel ceasefire has come into effect, Iranian state media outlet Press TV said on social media, following a spate of Iranian strikes that have stoked confusion over Tehran’s willingness to participate in the agreement. “Ceasefire begins following four waves of Iranian attacks on Israeli-occupied territories,” the media channel said in an X update. As of five hours ago — in comments preceding US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the detente had taken effect — Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi had refuted the existence of a formal arrangement, while allowing for the easing of hostilities.

MIDDLE EAST - The ceasefire is going to be shaky and likely difficult to maintain given that right up until the very moment it is to go into effect Tehran was on the receiving end of very intense Israeli warplane attacks. And Iran's Foreign Minister too said Iran hit back overnight: "The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute," said FM Araghchi on X.

USA - President Donald Trump heads this week to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit as American allies come to grips with the vast impact his foreign policy has already achieved from Iran's nuclear ambitions to the future of funding for European security. The summit, which will take place in The Hague, Netherlands, will provide a platform for Trump to push for his proposed requirement that NATO's 32 member states reach 5% gross domestic product (GDP) spending on defense.

MIDDLE EAST - The exiled Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, is calling on the Iranian people to rid themselves of the tyrannical Islamic regime, declaring, “This is our Berlin Wall moment.” Pahlavi referred to the historic November 1989 moment when Germans on both sides of the Berlin Wall separating East and West Germany surged forward and crossed over the wall, marking the beginning of the end of East Germany’s repressive government.

MIDDLE EAST - Can anyone explain to me what just happened? The last 24 hours have been beyond weird. Just hours ago, everyone was freaking out because Iran had just fired a bunch of missiles at a major US military base in Qatar. But then we found out that most of the missiles were intercepted, not a single person was hurt, and very little damage was done. On top of everything else, President Trump announced that the Iranians had informed the US that the missiles were coming in advance…

USA - If Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are not awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, the institution no longer holds any meaning. Give one to them! The American bombing of Iran’s nuclear programme was the single greatest intervention on behalf of global peace we have seen in our lifetimes. The CND may have hilariously condemned the most effective non-proliferation campaign in history, but it goes without saying that the world is a much safer place when we woke up this morning than it was when we went to bed last night. Israeli intelligence had revealed that the Ayatollah’s plan was to produce a set of many small nuclear bombs. What are the chances that they would not have been fired at Paris, New York and London by Iran or her proxies?

MIDDLE EAST - This is the most significant moment in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Donald Trump finally did what he threatened he would do – and what all his predecessors unwaveringly refused to do – and deployed his 30,000lb bunker bombs to take out Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Make no mistake, we are in a new political reality. The Middle East is a region that invites hyperbole, but I can say, without exaggeration, that what happened in Iran last night affects not only the region but the entire world. The question that must now be asked, and not just by terrified civilians on both sides, but by leading strategic thinkers in America, Israel, Iran and, indeed, beyond is as simple as it is vital: What next?

RUSSIA - Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev warned that multiple nations are “ready” to supply Iran with nuclear warheads following the United States’ airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday. Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council issued a series of X posts following the United States’ attack against Iran. Medvedev stated Iran’s “enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.” Medvedev also claimed that a “number of countries” are “ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads,” without directly naming any of the supposed nations, although Russia has consistently backed Iran’s nuclear program. “The US is now entangled in a new conflict, with prospects of a ground operation looming on the horizon,” Medvedev added. “Donald Trump, once hailed as ‘president of peace,’ has now pushed the US into another war.”

IRAN - Iranian state-owned outlet Press TV has released a new report quoting Major General Kowsari, a senior member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, who stated: “The Parliament has reached the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision in this regard lies with the Supreme National Security Council.” If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei approves the proposed closure of the critical maritime chokepoint — through which approximately 30% of global seaborne oil and 20% of LNG transit — Brent crude and natural gas futures will surge sharply this evening.

MIDDLE EAST - Iran would have no legal authority to order a halt to traffic through Hormuz, so would need to achieve this by force or the threat of force. If its navy tried to bar entry to the strait, it would likely be met with a strong response from the US Fifth Fleet and other Western navies patrolling the area. But it could cause severe disruption without a single Iranian warship leaving port. One option would be to harry shipping with small, fast patrol boats. Or it could launch drones and fire missiles toward ships from coastal or inland sites. That could make it too risky for commercial ships to venture through. Similar tactics have been employed successfully by the Houthi militia in Yemen to disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait leading into the Red Sea on the other side of the Arabian peninsula. The Houthis have mostly fired missiles and drones at ships after warning owners of vessels linked to the US, the UK and Israel that they will be attacked if they approach the area.

MIDDLE EAST - A US-led force in the Red Sea is seeking to protect shipping there. But the number of ships sailing through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was still down about 70% in June compared with the average level of 2022 and 2023, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd, a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. This has forced vessel operators to reroute their traffic around the southern tip of Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal — a lengthier and more expensive journey for ships traveling between Asia and Europe. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would quickly hit Iran’s own economy as it would prevent it from exporting its petroleum. And it would antagonize China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and a critical partner that’s used its veto power at the UN Security Council to shield Iran from Western-led sanctions or resolutions.