"Will a day come when the Nones are on top? We can't predict for sure," says lead researcher Barry Kosmin. But if Nones, now 22% of all adults ages 18 to 29, continue to gain among young adults, to draw more people "switching out" from denominations and to replace more religious older people, researchers forecast one in five Americans will be Nones in 20 years.

"Trends clearly favor this," Kosmin says. But he also notes, "There could be a Great Awakening (massive Protestant revival) or immigration may bring in more Catholic believers." Kosmin and Ariela Keysar of Trinity College, Hartford, Connecticut, directed three editions of the American Religious Identification Survey over 18 years. The 2008 ARIS (pdf), based on a sampling of 54,000 US adults, also burrowed in for a closer look at 1,106 Nones, who answered extra questions about their beliefs and behaviors and views on God.

One quirky fact: 33% of Nones claim Irish ancestry, although the US Census says only 10% of the USA does. "We have no idea why," he says. "Maybe you could ask (Fox newscaster) Bill O'Reilly. In some way, researchers found Nones are very much like the overall, largely religious, US population. There's no statistical difference on education, or income or marital status. They are just as likely to be divorced as anybody else. Nones are not a fringe group anymore and are now part of Middle America. They're present in every socio-demographic group", Keysar concludes in their report.

Observers have traditionally used the number of sunspots on the surface of the Sun to measure its activity. The number of sunspots reaches a peak at what is called the solar maximum, then declines to reach a minimum during a cycle. At the peak, intense solar flares and geomagnetic storms eject vast amounts of energy into space, crashing into the Earth's protective magnetic fields, knocking out satellites, disrupting communications and causing colorful aurorae.

But scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the United States and the University of Michigan found that the EARTH WAS BOMBARDED WITH INTENSE SOLAR WINDS LAST YEAR DESPITE AN UNUSUALLY QUIET PHASE FOR THE SUN. "The Sun continues to surprise us," said Sarah Gibson of the center's High Altitude Observatory and lead author of the study. "The solar wind can hit Earth like a fire hose even when there are virtually no sunspots."

Scientists previously thought the streams of energy largely disappeared as the solar cycle approached the minimum.

"THAT'S THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL FORECLOSURES IN OUR COUNTRY," he said. Option-ARMs are now considered among the riskiest offered during the recent housing boom and have left many borrowers owing more than their homes are worth. These "underwater" mortgages have been a driving force behind rising defaults and mounting foreclosures. The mortgages differ from other ARMs by offering an option to PAY ONLY THE INTEREST each month or a low minimum payment that leads to a rising balance in the loan's principal.

When the balance of the loan reaches a certain level or the mortgage hits a specific date, the borrower must begin making full payments to cover the new amount. The loan's interest rate also may have been fixed at a low level for the first few years with a so-called teaser rate, but then reset to a higher level. Because the new monthly PAYMENTS CAN BE FIVE OR 10 TIMES WHAT BORROWERS ARE ACCUSTOMED TO PAYING, they "threaten a much greater hit to the consumer than the subprimes," Goddard said, referring to the mortgages often extended to less credit-worthy borrowers that fed the first wave of the financial crisis.

The US housing market has suffered the worst downturn since the Great Depression, and its impact has rippled through the recession-hit economy.

"No power in the world is daring enough to attack Iran as we are more experienced and powerful than ever," Ahmadinejad said. Hundreds of troops marched past the official podium packed with top officials, followed by military hardware including Ghadr, Sejil and Shahab-3 long-range missiles which are made in Iran.

Television commentators said the Shahab-3 missile had a range of 2,000 km (1,250 miles), putting Israel within striking distance. Shorter range missiles, unmanned planes and locally made jet fighters - Saegheh and Azarkhsh, artillery and rockets were also on display. The United States and its allies are seeking to intensify UN sanctions on Iran over the Islamic country's disputed nuclear programme, which the West fears is intended to build nuclear weapons. Iran has repeatedly denied this.

Iran has repeatedly condemned the military presence of the US and its allies in neighboring countries. "The roots of all conflicts in the region is the presence of foreign troops," Ahmadinejad said. Washington and Israel do not rule out military action against Iran over the nuclear issue. TEHRAN IS DUE TO HOLD TALKS ON OCTOBER 1 WITH MAJOR WORLD POWERS over concerns about the Islamic Republic's nuclear strategy.

A document outlining the US position ahead of the September 24-25 Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh said exporters, which include China, Germany and Japan, should consume more, while debtors like the United States ought to boost savings. "The world will face anemic growth if adjustments in one part of the global economy are not matched by offsetting adjustments in other parts," said the document, which was obtained by Reuters on Monday.

GERMANY, A MAJOR EXPORTER TO THE UNITED STATES, was singled out on Sunday by US President Barack Obama as a country that, like China, EXPORTS A LOT BUT DOES NOT BUY MUCH BACK. But a top European Union official said that the euro zone, where 16 countries share a common currency, had to act as a collective. "It is difficult to think about one country without taking into consideration what is the impact in the euro area," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters in New York.

Taxpayer money to the tune of $5 trillion has been pumped into the world economy to keep it from seizing up since the beginning of the crisis last September. G20 leaders will maintain that pace of stimulus while acknowledging that at some point it will have to be wound down, the document said. But, mindful of how a disorderly rush to raise interest rates could roil world markets again, THEY WILL ALSO ASK FINANCE MINISTERS TO THRASH OUT A "TRANSPARENT AND CREDIBLE" EXIT STRATEGY.

The downgrading of expectations comes as RELATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND EUROPE, WHICH STARTED THE YEAR OF TALKS AS ALLIES, NEAR BREAKDOWN. In Brussels, European Union officials have grown increasingly frustrated at the US stance, saying it has fallen short on both its level of ambition to reduce emissions and on offering aid to developing nations.

"So far, we thought the basic problem was the Chinese and the Indians. But now I think THE PROBLEM APPEARS TO LIE MOST CLEARLY WITH THE US," a European Commission official said. Talks were "not going well". European officials say the Obama administration lacks focus because its top talent is wrapped up in the all-consuming debate over healthcare.

As the EUISS writes, the "full spectrum of high intensity combat" must be applied to stabilize the "global class society". According to a recent study published by the EU's "Institute for Security Studies" (EUISS) future wars will not be fought between states, but between "unequal global socioeconomic classes of society". On one side of this "hierarchical class society" are the metropolitan elite, consisting of transnational corporations, the OECD member states and the "rapid transition states" India, China and Brazil. These are confronted with "increasingly explosive tensions" from the other side, the global poor. To prevent a "global systemic collapse", the INSTITUTE CALLS FOR APPLYING THE "FULL SPECTRUM OF HIGH INTENSITY COMBAT" AGAINST THE "BOTTOM BILLION".

PREVENTING THE INFLUX OF THOSE FLEEING THE MISERY OF THE SOUTH is a "major military task," writes the EUISS. Large scale "barrier operations" must be aimed at "shielding the global rich from the tensions and problems of the poor". The EUISS estimates that the ratio of the world's population "living in misery and frustration" will continue to rise. Therefore the EU must reinforce its already rigid border regime.

For the EUISS, warding off economic refugees is directly linked to the management of global ecological crises. Natural catastrophes, caused by climatic change, could lead to "sudden refugee or migration flows within the EU", which would call for military management. The EUISS THEREFORE CALLS ON THE RICH NATIONS OF THE NORTH, TO USE "MORE ROBUST POWER" TO "PROTECT" NATURAL RESOURCES, SUCH AS TROPICAL RAIN FORESTS AND FISH BREEDING AREAS IN THE POVERTY-STRICKEN REGIONS OF THE SOUTH, against unwanted seizure, because they are "universal treasures, BEYOND THE SOVEREIGN JURISDICTION OF ANY SINGLE STATE."

The EUISS, on whose behalf Weis reached his conclusions, was inaugurated in Paris in early 2002. As an "autonomous agency" - as it calls itself - it is elaborating projects for the European Security and Defense Policy, ESDP. GERMANY IS HOLDING A STRATEGIC POSITION IN THIS AGENCY.

"Fears are growing in Brussels that Klaus intends to find an excuse to delay signing as long as possible - certainly, until some time in the first half of next year. THE EU WILL THEN FACE ITS ULTIMATE NIGHTMARE - that the Lisbon treaty will not have been ratified by the time that the UK holds its next general election, due by June."

EUobserver reports that French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned the Czech Republic that it will have to face "consequences" if it delays final ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, if Ireland votes Yes on 2 October. He described Czech PM Jan Fischer as a "man of great quality", but added "I stated clearly that if the Irish say Yes, there is no question that we will accept to stay in a no man's land with a Europe that does not have the institutions to cope with the crisis. It will be necessary to draw the consequences - but those will be the subject of another meeting."

DPA reports that Jan Fischer said yesterday that ratification of the Lisbon Treaty could take up to six more months in his country. Meanwhile, writing in the Irish Times Tony Allwright looks at the 'guarantees' offered to Ireland on taxation and neutrality and argues, "they only nibble at the treaty's edges, and studiously avoid the rotten core to which so many people fundamentally object." He goes on to list four reasons to vote 'No', and four reasons not to vote 'Yes', including "THE DISHONESTY OF HAVING CONVERTED THE READABLE, UNDERSTANDABLE, IF INTERNALLY CONTRADICTORY TREATY ESTABLISHING A CONSTITUTION FOR EUROPE INTO THE LISBON REFORM TREATY."

Declan Ganley and Eamon Dunphy, a well-known Irish broadcaster, yesterday appeared on Tom McGurk's 4FM radio show to debate the Lisbon Treaty. Dunphy, who voted No in last year's referendum, said that the economic crisis had shown that Ireland could no longer govern itself and that it couldn't afford to vote No again because it had lost its "capacity for independence".

Handelsblatt quotes Ganley saying that the suggestion that the fate of Ireland's economy is dependent on the Lisbon Treaty is a "huge lie" and the common form of "INTIMIDATION FROM BRUSSELS". The Irish Independent reports that former Irish PM Garret FitzGerald said yesterday that Ganley's return to the No side won't affect the campaign.

Writing on the Guardian's Comment is Free, Foreign Affairs Columnist Simon Tisdall notes, "It's plain the Irish have not suddenly fallen back in love with Brussels; many reservations remain... The key difference between now and June last year is Ireland's transformation from Celtic tiger to timid puss. What happened is the recession happened. THE REFERENDUM IS NOT ABOUT PRINCIPLES, IF IT EVER WAS; IT'S ABOUT FEAR."

It reports that, several "leading EU politicians digress from the thesis that the Lisbon Treaty is necessary for the effective functioning of the enlarged EU. The new message is that, without the Lisbon Treaty, the EU would be as capable of acting as hitherto."

Maria Asenius is quoted saying, "We cannot wait forever for a decision on this issue. WE NEED A NEW COMMISSION TO CONTINUE EU BUSINESSES. With or without the Lisbon Treaty. We've got no choice."

This is according to an authoritative new book by the political journalist Adam Boulton, a New Labour insider married to Anji Hunter, a former close aide of Mr Blair's. If anyone has worthwhile insights into what is going on in the ex-Prime Minister's mind, it is Mr Boulton. He says Lord Mandelson is propping up Gordon Brown only so that his friend Tony Blair can become President of Europe. WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A NASTY LITTLE PLOT, chiefly orchestrated by Lord Mandelson, whose overwhelming purpose is to see the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and, if at all possible, secure the coronation of Tony Blair as President. Even the timing of the General Election is part of the plot.

This is how it works. In less than two weeks, on October 2, the Irish will vote on the Lisbon Treaty. In June last year, they voted against it. That was not what Brussels wanted, since until the treaty is ratified by all member states, it cannot become law and there can be no European President, no European Foreign Minister and no other integrationist measures. Which is why the Irish are being made to vote again. So much for democracy! This time they are expected to say 'Yes'. Battered by a recession far worse even than ours, and in dire need of financial support from other member states, they are unlikely to stand up to Europe this time.

Once Ireland has approved the Lisbon Treaty, the last major impediment to its ratification will have been removed. However, there is one final wisp of hope for those who want to stop the EU juggernaut. Vaclav Klaus, President of the Czech Republic, does not like the treaty, and has so far resisted signing it, though the Czech parliament has passed it. He and his country, though, are certain to come under enormous pressure. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President, has just warned Prague that it faces 'consequences' if it does not swiftly follow an Irish 'Yes' with its own ratification.

THE TROUBLE IS THAT ONCE THE TREATY HAS BEEN RATIFIED, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE TORIES TO UNPICK IT, as it will have become part of European law accepted by every member state. The reason Lord Mandelson wants the General Election to be held next June, which is the latest possible date, is not because he seriously believes that Gordon Brown has an earthly chance of winning by leaving it until then. He would like to provide as much time as possible for the treaty to be ratified before David Cameron arrives at No 10.

The Tories are admittedly in a difficult position for the reason I have mentioned. HOW COULD THEY RENEGE ON A TREATY WHICH HAD ALREADY BEEN RATIFIED, forming the new legal basis of the European Union? They could hardly deny the legitimacy of the President of Europe, be it Tony Blair or anyone else, or pretend that he did not exist.

That said, their present position is a potentially weak one. Their policy is to hope against hope that President Klaus, or conceivably the Polish President, will hold out until June and a Tory victory in the General Election. In that case, there would be a referendum which would almost certainly lead to a 'No' vote, and the Lisbon Treaty would come crashing down across Europe. Unlike Ireland, Britain is too big and important a country for its people to be forced by Brussels to vote again. WHAT A SORDID, UNDEMOCRATIC RACKET THIS SUPPOSEDLY NOBLE EUROPEAN PROJECT HAS BECOME.

Our real concern should not be whether Tony Blair becomes the first President of Europe, with Lord Mandelson's snout no doubt deeply embedded in a neighbouring trough. The most important issue is whether there should be a European President and a Lisbon Treaty at all - and, to that prospect, THE OVERWHELMING VERDICT OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE WOULD APPEAR TO BE A RESOUNDING 'NO'.

The Germans are also likely to get a very lukewarm reception to their idea at the G-20 summit. Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel has backed the proposal, the draft communiqué for the Pittsburgh meeting contains no mention of a transaction tax - a clear indication that the suggestion has no chance of making the agenda at the summit.

The differences of opinion on the other items up for discussion, which range from future economic policy to tightening the rules on capital reserves for banks, are already too big. Indeed it's quite possible the Pittsburgh summit will end in a similar fashion to its predecessor in London six months ago, namely with a few well-chosen, but nebulous soundbites that gloss over the fact that THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT INDUSTRIALIZED NATIONS ARE AT LOGGERHEADS OVER HOW BEST TO MANAGE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.

Hanging over all of this is the same fundamental conflict that overshadowed the London summit, namely that BRITAIN AND THE US WANT TO CRANK UP GLOBAL DEMAND AND GROWTH WHILE THE CONTINENTAL EUROPEANS WANT TO REGULATE THE FINANCIAL MARKETS. Unless the delegates in Pittsburgh can reach a compromise, THERE MAY BE DIRE CONSEQUENCES. New trade disputes could arise which would further weaken the already poor prospects for growth.

The Australian doctor - nicknamed Dr Death for his work on suicide - is traveling the world to teach people how to end their lives safely with a suicide drug-testing kit. "Very few will go down this path, but almost every 75-year old I meet now sees merit in having their own bottle of Nembutal in the cupboard as an insurance policy, in case things get bad," Nitschke told Reuters, referring to the barbiturate used as a sedative.

Nitschke's is an extreme view, but as the proportion of older people increases rapidly in countries such as the United States, Australia, Japan, Germany and Britain, the suggestion of an option to escape indignity could spur political tremors. Littered with ethical red flags - particularly around the possibility that families or organizations may encourage the elderly or infirm to end their lives - the issue of assisted suicide has been forced up the British political agenda.

Despite the threat of prosecution, British campaign group Dignity in Dying said there is a growing trend of Britons opting for assisted suicide. So far 117 Britons have traveled abroad for an assisted death and 30 more are preparing to go.

The couple decided not to have an abortion because of their religious beliefs, and have met the other couple and arranged a handover. Mrs Savage added: 'We will wonder about this child every day for the rest of our lives. We have hopes for him, but they are his parents and we'll defer to their judgment on when and if they ever tell him what happened and any contact that's afforded us.'

'We just want to know he's healthy and happy.' Lawyers for the Savages are working to ensure that the fertility clinic that made the error 'will accept full responsibility for the consequences of their misconduct'.

Military units are in reserve near the Channel Tunnel entrance in case of disorder and efforts have so far been hampered by the presence of SCORES OF CAMERA CREWS AND HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANISATION REPRESENTATIVES. Around 150 migrants were standing quietly behind banners marked 'we need shelter and protection, we want peace'.

Police hope to seal off the site at the end of the four-day action. But last night some migrants, MOST OF THEM FROM AFGHANISTAN, threatened to meet violence with violence and sent out this defiant message - 'THE ONLY PLACE WE ARE GOING FROM HERE IS BRITAIN'.

A 22-year-old from Kabul, who gave his name as Rezna, spoke for many when he said: 'We're determined to stay as close to the port as possible because it's the way to England. Nothing will stop us getting there. We are all absolutely determined to start a new life in Britain.' They are resigned to losing their temporary shelters but PLEDGED YESTERDAY TO DEFEND THEIR MAKESHIFT MOSQUE - by far the best-built structure on the camp.