USA - For the second time in five years the US has suffered a self-inflicted strategic calamity. In the summer of 2021, Joe Biden led a hasty, treacherous and bloody withdrawal from Afghanistan that handed control of the country back to an enemy regime and ended America’s longest war in ignominy and retreat. This week, Donald Trump ended one of America’s shortest wars with a deal that leaves an enemy regime in place in Iran, emboldened by its own survival, entrenched in defiance of the civilised world and even potentially enriched by the promise of boatloads of money to help rebuild its battered economy and war-making infrastructure. Trump, the man who promised to keep the US out of “dumb wars”, has joined the long list of American presidents lured by the promise of history-making opportunity in the Greater Middle East who ended up undone by a familiar combination of hubris and miscalculation. Six months after the catastrophic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Vladimir Putin seized on the demonstration of American failure and the retreat it represented to invade Ukraine. Who may be tempted this time to roll the dice by another demonstration of a war America failed to win?

IRAN - Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of the first Iranian supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, has hailed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran as a major “victory” for Tehran. The “greater jihad” would now begin, he promised, according to a speech aired by Iranian state media earlier this week. The “greater jihad” is a term often used to refer to the internal, spiritual struggle, while the “lesser jihad” refers to armed conflict. It was unclear which disputes he was referring to, but the regime has struggled to suppress growing domestic dissent, most visibly during the January demonstrations that erupted over worsening economic conditions.

USA - Donald Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran is a political debacle for the United States, as seriously wrong as Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, and likely worse. While much lies ahead, Trump and his deputy JD Vance are showing no recognition of the damage already done, or any inclination to staunch further losses. This wound is totally self-inflicted. Trump claims the deal avoids economic catastrophe, but its plain purpose is to save the president politically from his own errors. The MOU even leaves dangerously unclear whether Iran will allow unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It says “future administration and maritime services” are to be negotiated. But as we’ve seen this weekend with Iran’s closure of the Strait over alleged “ceasefire violations” by Israel, the regime still holds – and will continue to hold – the whip hand.

USA - US President Donald Trump arrived at the Group of Seven summit in France this week with a new US-Iran agreement to sell, a restless Israeli ally to discipline, and a familiar message for the world: He alone had done what others would not. The sharpest remarks were aimed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose latest strikes in Lebanon angered Washington just as Trump was trying to lock down an agreement with Tehran. Speaking in Évian-les-Bains, Trump said Netanyahu “has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon,” calling the Beirut strike “vicious” and “too much.” For Israel, the week exposed an uncomfortable reality. Trump remains popular, powerful, and rhetorically committed to Israel’s survival. But his support now comes with public scolding, transactional accounting, and an unmistakable demand that Netanyahu not interfere with the deal Trump wants to call his own.

MIDDLE EAST - Donald Trump ordered Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah after overnight strikes on Lebanon threatened to derail US-Iran peace talks. The US president told Israel to “calm down and use your head” after an Israeli air strike on Beirut early on Friday killed 18 people, NBC News reported. The strike was revenge for the Hezbollah killing of four Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, said Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister. Tehran then walked away from peace talks, planned to take place in Switzerland on Friday, demanding a US guarantee that fighting would stop in Lebanon. Mediators are now scrambling to save the talks, which were due to address how to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme, the core issue in the conflict. An Israeli official said troops would remain in southern Lebanon, inside an occupied “buffer zone”, but would respect the ceasefire as long as Hezbollah did not attack its forces.

USA - The US secretary of war has criticised NATO allies for prioritising welfare over defence spending and suggested the United States could further reduce its forces in Europe. At a gathering of alliance defence ministers, Pete Hegseth lashed out at countries that “have yet to show a credible path” to meeting their commitments for higher defence spending. Dan Jarvis, Britain’s new defence secretary, said the meeting at NATO’s Brussels headquarters came at “a moment of challenge”. He arrived empty-handed, without a published defence investment plan (DIP) or a promise of extra funding to prepare the armed forces for the growing threat of Russia.

NIGERIA - More than 10,000 people have been infected with Cholera in a major outbreak centred on Nigeria’s conflict-hit northeastern Borno state. At least 46 people have died from the infection in Doctors Without Borders (MSF) medical facilities during the outbreak, which began early last month, the organisation told The Telegraph. The medical charity, working alongside the state ministry of health, has ​set up a cholera treatment centre in the capital, ​Maiduguri, as clinics struggle to cope with the surge in cases. The outbreak is placing further strain on an already fragile healthcare system in a region shaped by violent extremism, mass displacement and poor water and sanitation infrastructure, raising fears of wider spread if containment efforts fail.

SWITZERLAND - A signing ceremony and technical talks for the US-Iran deal in Switzerland have been postponed after Iran’s delegation refused to travel, citing Israeli military action in Lebanon. “Plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalised and the US delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity,” the White House said. Iran’s refusal to take part does not bode well for the aim of completing fraught negotiations on numerous outstanding issues within the 60-day period. Israeli strikes continued in Lebanon on Friday, killing at least 16 people overnight according to local reports. Four Israeli soldiers were also killed while fighting Hezbollah. Shortly afterwards the Iranian delegation announced it had suspended its trip because of continuing Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon despite the call to end military operations in the deal.

IRAN - Many Iranians who stood against the regime are left feeling frustrated and angry as details emerge of the peace deal between Washington and Tehran — worrying that the Islamist hardliners are now more powerful and entrenched than ever. President Trump signaled that the US was going to war with Iran’s regime partially over the deaths of thousands of anti-regime protesters. “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” he posted on Truth Social on January 13. A peace deal would waste all of that progress, 34-year-old Nima Azar told The Post. “Forty-five thousand dead in two days, probably more. It can’t be for nothing. You’re going to let them rebuild?” said Azar, who joined a legion of anti-regime protestors outside Iran’s latest World Cup match in Los Angeles. “They fear this will embolden the Islamic Republic and allow it to redirect the frustration and defeat it suffered at America’s hands into rage against unarmed, innocent Iranians,” he added. Experts warn that should the war in Iran end as is, the Islamic Republic would have evidence to show its citizens that the regime cannot be toppled.

GERMANY - NATO members are reportedly considering offensive cyber actions against Moscow under the pretext of battling a supposed “Russian threat”. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has opened a new hybrid warfare center amid the broader militarization of the country in response to a supposed “Russian threat.” Previous media reports have, however, suggested that Germany and other NATO member states are plotting offensive cyber operations against Russia. The military bloc’s members have routinely accused Russia of hacking government servers, jamming aircraft GPS signals, and redirecting Ukrainian drones into their airspace, with little to no evidence. Moscow has dismissed the allegations as warmongering designed to justify the “rabid militarization” of Europe.