Prof Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on US-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the US that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario - for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the US

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation WILL TRIGGER A CIVIL WAR next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, THE USA WILL BREAK INTO SIX PIECES - with Alaska reverting to Russian control. Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But WHEN SPRING COMES, IT WILL BE CLEAR THAT THERE ARE NO MIRACLES."

Talbots Inc and Sears Holdings Corp are among chains shuttering underperforming locations. More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc, Linens 'n Things Inc, Sharper Image Corp and Steve & Barry's LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

"You'll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi-regionally or nationally go out," Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. "There are a number that are real causes for concern."

Discounts of 70 percent or more by Macy's, AnnTaylor Stores Inc and other retailers failed to prevent a spending drop of as much as 4 percent during the final two months of the year, according to data from SpendingPulse. Retailers' pricing models are being challenged by consumers, according to Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California.

Although the number of natural disasters was lower than in 2007, the catastrophes that occurred proved to be MORE DESTRUCTIVE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS AND THE FINANCIAL COST of the damage caused, Germany-based Munich Re said in its annual assessment. "This continues the long-term trend we have been observing. Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes," Munich Re board member Torsten Jeworrek said.

The world needed "effective and binding rules on CO2 emissions, so that climate change is curbed and future generations do not have to live with weather scenarios that are difficult to control," board member Jeworrek said. Last December, the international community agreed in Bali on a two-year roadmap culminating in a new global climate deal to be signed in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Unprecedented in scale and complexity, this accord, due to take effect from 2012, is meant to rein in the greenhouse gases that stoke global warming and throw a lifeline to poor countries exposed to mutated weather patterns.

Britain's currency also dropped versus 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts, falling for a second day against the Swiss franc and tumbling to a 14-year low against Japan's yen. Property research company Hometrack Ltd said UK house values slid 8.7 percent this year, led by a 10.1 percent drop in London, and that prices will "inevitably" decline in 2009.

"Parity is ever more likely" between the pound and the euro, said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global foreign-exchange strategy in London at Calyon, the investment-banking unit of Credit Agricole SA. "If there's going to be a turnaround in euro-sterling it needs to come from the euro."

The pound depreciated as much as 2 percent to 98 pence per euro, its sixth straight daily drop, and was at 97.47 pence by 5:35 pm in London, from 96.10 pence at the end of last week. IT SANK 25 PERCENT AGAINST THE EUROPEAN COMMON CURRENCY THIS YEAR, the most since the euro was introduced in 1999.

Terrorist chief Hassan Nasrallah issued a statement on Hizbullah's Al-Manar television station Sunday, vowing that "northern Israel will burn as Gaza is burning." Nasrallah rarely appears in person; he speaks via a video hook-up from his hideout due to fears of assassination by Israeli agents, following the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - anticipating such a reaction - warned Hizbullah Saturday night in his speech informing the nation about the military operation in Gaza that any "others who may seek to take advantage of the situation would be wise not to."

Update:- Israeli jets pound the Gaza Strip for a fourth day, with strikes on Hamas government buildings and security installations.

He said: "Labour made a lot of promises, but a lot of them have vanished into thin air. We have not seen a raising of aspirations in the last 13 years, but instead there is A SENSE OF HOPELESSNESS. While the rich have got richer, the poor have got poorer. When a big bank or car company goes bankrupt, it gets bailed out, but no one seems to be bailing out the ordinary people who are losing their jobs and seeing their savings diminished."

The Rt Rev Nigel McCulloch, the Bishop of Manchester, criticised Labour for encouraging people to get further into debt. "The Government has acted scandalously. This is not just an economic issue, but a moral one. It's about what we value," he said. "The Government believes that money can answer all of the problems and has encouraged greed and a love of money that the Bible says is the root of all evil.

"It's morally corrupt because it encourages people to get into a lifestyle of believing they can always get what they want." The Rt Rev Stephen Lowe, the Bishop of Hulme, said: "The Government isn't telling people who are already deep in debt to stop overextending themselves, but instead is urging us to spend more. That is morally suspect and morally feeble."

Some coal power plants have been running at historically high rates that would put them out of action by 2013, provoking concern over an energy "generation gap", according to the Sunday Times. Under EU rules companies operating old coal and oil-fired plants were given the option to upgrade them to comply with stringent emission limits.

Those plants for which it was uneconomic to upgrade were permitted to continue operating until 2016 and given 20,000 hours to run. But the report, based on research from energy consultants Utilyx, said of the nine plants that opted out, five could be decommissioned by spring 2013 if they continue running at current rates.

Kevin Norrish, the bank's commodities strategist, said the average fall in the price of copper, lead, and zinc has been roughly 60pc since the peak in July this year. All three metals were traded on the London Metal Exchange in the inter-war years so it is possible to make a comparison. Prices for the three metals fell 40pc from their highs in 1929 before touching bottom in 1933, with the bulk of the fall in 1930 as the slump spread worldwide. "Lead and zinc have already lost more than they did in the 1930s," he said.

Copper was hit hardest during the Depression, despite the electrification drive in the US and the Soviet Union, falling 70pc at one stage before creeping back in the mid-1930s. The reason was an 85pc fall in US construction, then the biggest user of the metal.

THE CREDIT MARKETS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF EXTREME STRESS YESTERDAY. The iTraxx Crossover index measuring default risk on low-grade European bonds punched above 950 for the first time. The investment grade index hit 188. The spreads are now flashing THE SORT OF DANGER SIGNALS SEEN BEFORE THE COLLAPSE OF LEHMAN BROTHERS IN SEPTEMBER. Each episode of the financial crisis over the last eighteen months has been preceded by a big jump in the iTraxx indexes.

The Local Government Association (LGA) has said that at least 15 per cent of those in operational roles should be female. That means they will fill one of the five or six places for crew on each engine. The LGA said an increased number of firewomen is necessary "to meet the needs of local people". But critics warned that political correctness was being put above the ability to save lives.

Susie Squire, of the Taxpayers' Alliance, said: "Introducing this sort of quota to the fire service is a big mistake. If ever there was a job that should be awarded on merit and physical fitness, it is that of a firefighter. This quota system will not only cost taxpayers money by introducing additional and unnecessary administration, but could risk the safety of all of us in the long run." At present fewer than one in ten firefighters are female.

A cut on Friday extended six weeks of devaluations by Russia's central bank designed to offset the impact of the global economic crisis and falling oil prices as the country's main export commodity approached its lowest level since 2004. Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, warned Russia faced "unprecedentedly difficult and dangerous circumstances" and could be "heading into a black hole. It is not clear what the fate of our rouble will be or if society has sufficient financial and moral resources," he said.

After the depreciation, which was the eighth so far this month, the rouble declined as much as 1.2 per cent to Rbs29.06 versus the dollar on Friday, a four year low. The rouble has now lost nearly 20 per cent of its value against the US currency since August. Analysts at Barclays Capital said the best case scenario would see Russian policymakers, facing the mounting evidence of a recession, allowing a one-off depreciation of 10 per cent or more.

Mikhail Sukhodolsky, a deputy interior minister, warned on Christmas Eve that there could be further protests. "The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal," he said.

The ongoing recession and global economic shock pummeled stocks this year, with the Dow Jones industrial average slumping 36.2 percent. That's the biggest drop since 1931 when the Great Depression sent stocks reeling 40.6 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is set to record the biggest drop since its creation in 1957. The index of America's biggest companies is down 40.9 percent for the year.

With these statistics ready to play out this week, it is little wonder why investors are all too happy to close the books on 2008. Analysts are looking toward January as a crucial period for the market as it tries to recover some of the $7.3 trillion wiped from the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, the broadest measure of U.S. stocks.

He said many analysts are jumping past this week and focusing on next month, especially with Barack Obama set to be sworn in as president on Jan. 20. There is hope that the new administration will deliver another stimulus package, which along with December's interest rate cuts, might help quell the financial crisis. Trading is expected to remain volatile with many market participants on the sidelines during the holiday-shortened week, but that doesn't mean investors won't be kept busy.

As this can be the warning of a much bigger quake - this situation needs watching. View details

Today, there is a danger of the same process repeating itself. Hizbullah is an Iranian creation. Hamas is not. But it has drawn itself increasingly into Iran's orbit. Much of its imported weaponry, and the expertise with which it now produces and refines its own rockets, have been provided by Iran. Dozens of its commanders have been trained in Iran in recent years, coming home and disseminating that "education" as Hamas has built an army in Gaza. And, increasingly too, Hamas has come to act in the service of Iran's aims. Iran is avowedly committed to Israel's destruction, and regards Hamas as a tool toward this goal.

The same Iran, via an emboldened Hizbullah, is now most of the way to achieving proxy control not merely of southern Lebanon, but all of Lebanon. The same Iran, already armed with missiles that can reach Israel, is extending its missile range to Europe and, it hopes, ultimately to North America. The same Iran is openly challenging not just the Middle East order but the world order, with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad personifying that challenge, thoroughly backed by the entire Teheran regime.

And that same Iran is moving ever closer to the nuclear capability it intends to use in the service of its goals. The long-term deterrence of Hamas's capacity to threaten Israel would represent the long-term deterrence of one aspect of Iran's rapacious and far-reaching power drive.

Israeli Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, says the operation has been a success so far and the aim is to "change realities on the ground" in Gaza. Israel has threatened to launch a ground assault and is now calling up 6,500 army reservists. Palestinians say at least 280 people have died in the air raids.

A major tunnel bringing fuel into Gaza from Egypt was among three destroyed, Palestinians say. But Israel says its jets bombed more than 40 tunnels. Israel accuses Palestinian militants of using the tunnels to smuggle weapons into Gaza. At the UN, the Security Council called for an end to all violence in Gaza, including rocket attacks from Gaza. Israel says militants have fired 110 rockets into Israel since Saturday.

The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts", reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation", reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".

Secondly, 2008 was the year when any pretence that there was a "scientific consensus" in favour of man-made global warming collapsed. At long last, as in the Manhattan Declaration last March, hundreds of proper scientists, including many of the world's most eminent climate experts, have been rallying to pour scorn on that "consensus" which was only a politically engineered artefact, based on ever more blatantly manipulated data and computer models programmed to produce no more than convenient fictions.

As 2009 dawns, it is time we in Britain faced up to the genuine crisis now fast approaching from the fact that – unless we get on very soon with building enough proper power stations to fill our looming "energy gap" - within a few years our lights will go out and what remains of our economy will judder to a halt. After years of infantile displacement activity, it is high time our politicians – along with those of the EU and President Obama's US – were brought back with A MIGHTY JOLT INTO CONTACT WITH THE REAL WORLD.