MIDDLE EAST - The Strait of Hormuz, just 24 miles wide and surrounded by sunbaked rocky deserts, is among the world’s least appealing seaways. But the narrow waterway is a crucial trade route for vast parts of the global economy, with 40,000 tankers and cargo vessels crossing it every year. Most of us know about the oil and gas riches pumped out by Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which travel through the waterway – collectively exporting 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas through the narrow strip of water. But the Persian Gulf is a global choke point for a raft of other vital commodities too – including the fertilisers that feed US and EU farms, the sulphur needed for everything from batteries to metals, and, going the other way, the Indian rice and other grains which keep the region from starvation. With the war on its 10th day, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed over threats from Iran, there are growing fears that the global economy is teetering on the brink of a major crisis.

MIDDLE EAST - The Iran war has triggered an even bigger oil shock than the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. The Paris-based agency said the conflict in the Middle East had caused the “largest disruption to crude supplies in the history of the global oil market”. The amount of oil carried by tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged from around 20 million barrels per day (mb/d) to “a trickle”, it said. By contrast, around four mb/d were removed from global markets by the Arab oil embargo during the Yom Kippur war of 1973. Not only is the hit to global supply bigger but production has also suffered a deeper blow. With “limited capacity” to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries have been forced to cut production by at least 10mb/d as storage sites have filled up, the IEA said. By contrast, production was reduced by about five mb/d in 1973.

USA - The number of Americans losing their homes to banks has risen for the twelfth consecutive month, highlighting mounting pressure in the US housing market. In February, foreclosure activity reached 38,840 properties - a 20 percent increase compared with the same month last year. Filings track the full spectrum of the process, from initial lender warnings to the formal repossession of homes after missed mortgage payments. This strain is already being felt in neighborhoods. As banks seize more homes and flood the market with discounted properties, surrounding home values drop, eroding equity for nearby homeowners who have kept up with their payments. The surge in foreclosures reflects broader financial stress for Americans. Rising taxes and interest rates are pushing some behind on mortgages, while unpaid credit card bills and auto loans add further pressure.

USA - It’s double or quits for the civilised world, for the cause of human flourishing, freedom and democracy. Either Donald Trump holds his nerve, crushes the Iranian regime, rides out the oil shock and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, or he and America are finished, exposed as unserious, fickle and incapable of forward planning, a superpower manquée felled by drone-wielding barbarians. The challenge is Trump’s character, his willingness to accept short-term economic and electoral pain, not America or Israel’s exceptional military capacities. Does the US president, a hawk on Iran for 47 years, have it in him to finish the job, going down in history as the saviour of civilisation from nuclear Islamism, or is he merely the unidimensional man-child his critics believe him to be?

USA - Britain and France “won” the Suez war in 1956. They destroyed Egypt’s air force on the ground and gained total control of the skies within hours. They crippled Egypt’s tank forces. The assault was professional and achieved all of its immediate military objectives. Yet the Suez crisis degenerated into the worst humiliation since 1940 because the two powers failed to anticipate the economic fallout. Both faced capital flight and pressure on their fixed exchange rates.

IRAN - Iran has warned the world to prepare for oil to hit $200 a barrel, after it attacked three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has all but cut off access to the waterway, a chokepoint in global trade that ordinarily sees around 20% of all oil pass through daily. Since the start of the war in the Middle East, however, it has established a domineering presence in the Strait, leading to oil prices hitting a peak of nearly $120 a barrel, before dropping to its price at time of publication of $87. Yesterday, Iran said it would not allow 'one litre of oil' to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue. It has made good on that threat, after today attacking several commercial ships in the Strait.

USA - Something significant happened in global financial markets this week that received far less attention than it deserved. BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing more than $10 trillion in assets — blocked nearly half of the investors who requested withdrawals from its $26 billion private credit fund from getting their money back. Not because the fund had collapsed. Not because of fraud or regulatory intervention. Simply because too many people wanted out at the same time, and the fund didn’t have the liquidity to pay them all.

USA - On Monday, Donald Trump said the war on Iran was “very complete”. On Tuesday, Pete Hegseth, his secretary of defence, said Iran would face “the most intense day of strikes” yet in Operation Epic Fury. If the messaging seems confused, it may be because the US – and to a lesser extent Israel – has found itself caught in a classic military trap. By relying on overwhelming firepower, they have been suckered into what could yet prove to be another Vietnam. There, the US won every battle over 11 bloody years, but famously lost the war. This was despite it, as now, having complete air superiority, and quickly destroying most of the crucial military and industrial infrastructure on which the enemy was thought to rely.

USA - Shocked by the rapid price increases, many Americans are scrambling to figure out how to stretch their budgets to cover an essential expense. As the US-led war with Iran enters a second week, drivers across the country — particularly ride-share workers and those whose daily routines include gas-guzzling commutes — are reeling at the extra expense. The average price of US gasoline reached $3.48 a gallon on Monday, according to data from AAA, with the highest prices in California and other western states. Rapidly rising energy costs — jet fuel and diesel have also become more expensive since the war began — are rooted in the supply of crude oil coming from the Persian Gulf. Tankers that normally carry oil there are not sailing, cutting the world off from about one-fifth of its oil supply.

ISRAEL - Israel is creating the conditions for the Iranian regime to be overthrown and is currently engaged in a historic operation, which could have significant implications for the Western world as well, Religious Zionist Party MK Simcha Rothman told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. Regarding whether Israel would be able to topple the Iranian regime in Operation Roaring Lion, Rothman said Israel could create the conditions for internal change. “We can give them the opportunity, but no one can do it for them. No one can rule Iran unless they have the trust, ability, and power of the people inside Iran,” he told the Post. “What we can do is create conditions that allow those forces to rise and bring change. If they seize that opportunity, it would be a major development,” he added. Rothman described the joint US-Israeli operation as a “very major historical event for the State of Israel.”

FRANCE - Emmanuel Macron has ordered an “unprecedented” naval deployment in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. France will deploy eight frigates – more than the entire British fleet – along with two amphibious helicopter carriers and the country’s flagship Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier. Britain is still struggling to send a single warship to Cyprus, where RAF Akrotiri, a UK military base, was struck by an Iranian-made drone earlier this month. “We aim to guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime security,” Mr Macron said during a visit to a military air base in Cyprus. The French vessels are expected to join US forces aiming to reopen the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is carried, following a series of Iranian attacks.

USA - Massive airstrikes hit Tehran with explosions last night as Donald Trump promised the world the war would end 'very soon' and claimed the US has 'already won'. The American President even described the massive US and Israeli onslaught as a 'short-term excursion' which will be 'finished pretty quickly'. But further remarks betrayed Mr Trump's willingness to keep the war with Iran going, as he added: 'We've already won in many ways but we haven't won enough... we're going to go further.' The sky above the Iranian capital glowed amid the latest wave of US-Israeli attacks proving the US President's vow to 'go further' in the conflict was serious.

IRAN - Iran has warned Donald Trump to 'be careful not to be eliminated' after the US President said he did not believe the regime's new Supreme Leader can 'live in peace'. Mr Trump told Iran to brace for 'death, fire and fury' for keeping the Strait of Hormuz shut before threatening its new leader Mojtaba Khamenei. He told Fox the new Supreme Leader will be unable to ‘live in peace’ and he was ‘not happy with the appointment’, having warned Iran he would have the final say over their leader. But the regime's security chief Ali Larijani dismissed Mr Trump's comments, claiming Iran 'is not afraid of your empty threats'. He added: 'Even those greater than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation. Take care of yourself not to be eliminated!'

USA - Before the outbreak of war, a US official warned that analysts were tracking increased activity among Iran’s spy networks. Iran has proven capable of operating proxies on European soil, including a plot targeting the Israeli embassy in London. Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, warned in October: “MI5 has tracked more than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots in just the one year since I last stood at this podium. The UK was among the first to call out this wave of Iranian transnational aggression.” A day after the war began, a gunman opened fire on a Texas bar while wearing a “property of Allah” T-shirt, killing two people and wounding 14. Chris Swecker, a former assistant FBI director, recently told Fox News: “If ever there’s going to be a Hezbollah cell or a Hamas cell act in the United States in a violent way, it’s now.”

GERMANY - The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has scored a record result in Baden‑Wurttemberg’s regional elections, doubling its vote share from the previous election and achieving its highest result outside its traditional heartland. The right-wing party finished third in the election held over the weekend, behind the Greens and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). It secured nearly 19% of the vote, up from just under 10% in 2021. The result also marks AfD’s highest score outside the former East German states, which are its traditional stronghold. AfD’s previous best result in former West Germany was in the 2023 regional election in Hessen, where it won 18.4% of the vote.