GERMANY - Nationwide support for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance has collapsed to a historic low following a series of defeats in regional elections, a new poll suggests. The bloc’s popular backing stood at just 18%, its worst in German postwar history, according to a survey conducted by the INSA polling institution on behalf of Bild. The poll put the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 30%, the highest since the party was established in 2013. It remains the most popular party in Germany by a wide margin, the poll suggests. The CDU/CSU’s junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats and the Greens are polling at 14% each, with the Left Party at 10%.

UK - Donald Trump has said that a 'specific threat' prompted the United States to withdraw its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford following an alleged foiled terror plot. The Pentagon confirmed on Sunday that aircraft which were being stationed at the Gloucestershire base had been 'redeployed to their home stations in the US'. It came after the arrests of six individuals over the past week in connection with a suspected terror plot targeting the base.

UK - If just the threat of an attack can lead to the withdrawal of a key strategic US military asset, it emboldens our enemies. Since the end of the Second World War, the close alliance between the UK and America has had its tangible manifestation in the presence of US bases in this country. The “special relationship” was never more obvious than in places like RAF Fairford, where the USAF kept a squadron of 12 B-1 bombers. They have now all been moved back across the Atlantic to home stations in the US following the apparent terror plot that led to the arrest of five men, since released on bail. Andy Burnham has said there were “strong indications” of Iranian involvement in the episode and a British-Iranian was arrested on suspicion of preparation of terrorist acts. He has also been released on bail. Iran has said any base used to attack its territory constitutes “a legitimate target”.

MIDDLE EAST - The meeting comes a day after Iranian FM Esmail Baghaei said he hoped a “rumor” that Pakistan had deployed troops to Saudi Arabia was untrue, warning that intervention would complicate the situation. Officials from Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are set to meet in Riyadh on Monday to discuss how the three countries’ new Mecca Joint Defense Agreement should respond to escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, according to statements from the pact’s signatories. “As for the defense pact, the intention was, and God willing still is, that this pact not be used in a way that goes against the interests and general concerns of the Muslim ummah (collective).”

SPAIN - Pedro Sánchez is the undisputed leader of the European Left. But his time is running out. The Spanish prime minister rolled the dice on a snap election that risks bringing the hard-Right Vox into national government for the first time. The poll-leading centre-Right Partido Popular (PP) will need Vox as coalition partners if it is to take power, which will mean the most Right-wing Spanish government since Franco. It’s a nightmare scenario for Mr Sánchez, who prides himself on his progressive policies.

USA - Even by the eccentric norms of Silicon Valley, Anthropic is a very strange company indeed. One of its seven founders has been camping out at the Vatican, hoping to persuade the Pope that its software is conscious. It wants to put in place protections for the “welfare” of chatbots, a step towards legal personhood. Anthropic is also a noisy promoter of the idea that the End is Nigh, brought about by a killer superintelligent AI. It’s like the Heaven’s Gate UFO cult went into business. And when the going gets weird, to misquote Hunter S Thompson, the weird IPO. While arch-rival OpenAI, from which Anthropic broke away, has postponed its public flotation, Anthropic is racing towards one, in what could be the biggest share offer in history. Parts of its prospectus leaked last week. The question here is not whether people find AI useful, or even whether Anthropic has created some real business, which it has. The problem is whether it is a business that’s worth $2 trillion (£1.5 trillion), Anthropic’s modest valuation of itself, and whether it will go broke trying to get there.

POLAND - Russia is preparing to wage war against countries supporting Ukraine by launching missile strikes into their territory, Poland's Prime Minister revealed last night. Donald Tusk issued a chilling warning after the country was forced to close its airspace, scramble fighter jets and close airports due to the Kremlin's latest assault. Addressing Poland's parliament, Mr Tusk said Western intelligence agencies have confirmed Vladimir Putin's preparations for a wider conflict.

UK - A gang of children as young as five have been filmed storming a corner shop in balaclavas to steal while their smiling parents wait outside. Extraordinary footage captured by Dorset shopkeeper Erdogan Yigitoglu, 52, shows the primary school-aged criminals helping themselves to goods worth up to £120. The children have been filmed being 'trained' to steal piles of chocolate bars, disposable barbecues and a range of other items from his shop in Bournemouth. Mr Yigitoglu has spent years sharing CCTV footage of shoplifters online in a bid to deter crime, including young children concealing their identities while stealing. But the most shocking discovery, he says, was seeing the masked youngsters return to waiting adults after their raids. On one occasion, he claimed he watched a mother smile and pat her child on the head in apparent congratulations after a successful haul. 'My biggest wish is that children are taught the difference between right and wrong and are given the guidance they need to grow up as responsible members of the community.'

GERMANY - One third of US troops could be pulled from Europe under plans being considered by the Pentagon. The option to withdraw about 25,000 personnel, mainly affecting Germany as well as Italy and Spain, is among four drawn up during a six-month review announced in June, NBC News reported. Another option goes even further and would involve 40,000 troops leaving, along with planes, ships and weapons that have formed part of NATO’s deterrence against Russia for decades, according to sources who spoke to the network. The withdrawal would follow an initial reduction of 5,000 troops that is under way in Germany and which was announced in May in response to criticism by Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, of the US military operation in Iran.

USA - US President Donald Trump said that if Canada became an associate member of the European Union, he would consider it a “hostile act” in comments to the press on Wednesday. "If they do that, if I think it's at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things," Trump said, calling the proposal "laughable." “If it’s a good intention, that’s fine. If it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe, which is a possibility,” he said, adding that Canada had been a "terrible trade partner." Canada and the US are currently in a trade war, which is straining relations between the two neighboring countries and leaving Ottawa to seek new trade partners. On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she wanted to work with Canada to join the EU as an associate member.

FAR EAST - It was only a matter of time before widespread protests began to occur. Global supplies of gasoline and diesel have been getting tighter for months, and now prices are soaring and rationing has started in some parts of the world. Needless to say, a lot of ordinary people are very angry about this. Large protests have suddenly erupted all over the planet this month, and if the fuel crisis of 2026 continues to intensify it is probably inevitable that the protests will get even larger. Here in the United States, the average price of diesel reached six dollars a gallon for the very first time last week, and a lot of Americans are grumbling about that. But in other parts of the world, people are absolutely livid. In Syria, the government has raised the price of diesel by about 40 percent and the price of gasoline by about 25 percent. This has sparked a series of wild protests all over the country.

USA - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points – or 0.25%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 to increase the benchmark rate to 3.75%. This is the first rate hike since 2023. The rate hike comes just weeks before the midterm elections. President Trump responded to the rate hike: "Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, 1.5 Trillion Dollars a year. The word 'Deficit' is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are 'carrying' almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J TRUMP"

UK - UK drivers face paying £2.30 per litre for diesel by the end of the year if the Iran war continues to rage, analysts have warned. Global supply constraints from the Middle East conflict mean diesel pump prices could surge by another 19 percent compared with current levels – surpassing the previous record set in 2022 by a margin of 31p per litre, according to Wood Mackenzie. Alan Gelder, from Wood Mackenzie, said that if the war in Iran continues and Ukraine maintains attacks on Russian refineries, factory-gate diesel prices will surge to $285 per barrel, 65 percent above their August average of $173.

UK - Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, says inflation risks are “on the upside” as the Iran war keeps rattling oil prices. And he isn’t alone. Central bankers worldwide fear persistent inflation requires fast action to cool prices, but this theory is wrong-headed. Sustained tightening is both unnecessary and a mistake. Globally, central bankers were scarred by 2022’s hot inflation, a self-inflicted wound created by their massive Covid-era money-supply explosion. They think high oil prices risk driving all prices higher. They think AI data centre build-outs and long-ago-priced US tariffs add inflation tinder. They think wrongly – but most economists were wrongly trained that way. As I wrote here in April, high oil prices alone never fuel true inflation. They drive substitution, mostly dampening luxury-goods demand.

EUROPE - Polish oil refiner Orlen is racing to replace supplies from Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks on that country's oil infrastructure disrupt deliveries and send the energy markets into further tumult. The Yemen-based Houthis, last week, overran Saudi-backed forces on the Red Sea coastline and launched a string of attacks on Saudi pipelines and critical infrastructure. Those developments have prompted the Saudis to deactivate its main East-West pipeline and seen them struggle to keep up with delivery schedules. Orlen, accordingly, has expanded purchases from myriad North Sea suppliers, Reuters reported, citing "five industry sources."